Last Updated December 15, 2025 • By Zac Wasserman, REALTOR®
2026 Southern California Housing Market Forecast: Ventura County + Los Angeles Rates, Prices & Strategy
Looking for the 2026 Southern California housing market forecast?
This guide covers Ventura County and Los Angeles market predictions—mortgage rates, home prices, inventory trends, and practical strategies for buyers and sellers.
Understanding Ventura County real estate micro-markets
and Los Angeles County real estate micro-markets is essential for success.
What to expect in 2026: most major forecasts point to mortgage rates staying around the low-to-mid 6% range, with modest price growth and a slow-but-steady thaw in activity—more navigable, not a dramatic “boom.”
Published by Zac Wasserman (CA DRE# 02210760) • Local market insight for Ventura County + Los Angeles
2026 Southern California Housing Market Snapshot (Ventura County + LA):
• Rates: likely hover around ~6% to low-6% range (not back to 3%).
• Prices: expected to move modestly overall—local neighborhoods will vary widely.
• Inventory: improving slowly, but still tight in the most desirable pockets.
• Best opportunity: buyers who can act decisively; sellers who price correctly from day one.
Note: This post blends statewide/national forecasts with the most recent monthly local trend data available as of publication.
Rates
Likely “stuck” near 6%
Multiple 2026 outlooks point to elevated rates versus pre-2022 norms, with gradual easing rather than a cliff-drop.
Prices
Modest growth baseline
Forecasts generally call for modest appreciation nationally, with California behaving differently by submarket and supply.
Strategy
Preparation beats prediction
In a steady-rate environment, winning comes down to financing readiness, neighborhood selection, and realistic pricing.
Mortgage rates in 2026: what the forecasts suggest
The most consistent theme across major forecasts is this: mortgage rates may ease somewhat, but they’re expected to remain elevated compared to the 2010s and the pandemic-era lows.
For buyers preparing to enter the market, understanding how to get pre-approved for a mortgage in 2026 is a critical first step.
Realtor.com® projects mortgage rates averaging around the mid-6% range in 2026.
Reuters’ poll of property experts projected an average rate a little above 6% in 2026.
California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) forecasted 30-year fixed rates around 6% for 2026 in its statewide outlook.
Here’s the good news for 2026 homebuyers: after three years of elevated rates, we’re finally seeing meaningful relief.
This chart shows the mortgage rate journey from the pandemic lows through today’s market—and the context you need for 2026:
Mortgage rates peaked at 7.8% in October 2023 and declined to approximately 6.2% by December 2025.
The trend shows rates stabilizing in the low-to-mid 6% range, with forecasts suggesting rates may remain near these levels through 2026.
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
📊 What This Means for Your 2026 Home Plans:
Historic context: Today’s ~6% rates are far above 2020–2021 lows, but down meaningfully from the 2023 peak—and within the band many buyers can plan around.
The payment impact: A buyer financing $680,000 at 6.2% pays roughly $4,175/month in principal and interest. At 7%, that jumps to about $4,522 (roughly +$347/month).
2026 outlook: Most forecasts point to rates staying in the low-to-mid 6% range rather than dropping dramatically. That means focusing on payment comfort and neighborhood value—not timing the “rate bottom.”
The opportunity: Buyers have more time to evaluate properties, and sellers need to compete on price and condition—not just list and wait.
When it comes to the Southern California housing market in 2026, the consensus among analysts leans toward modest appreciation rather than surging growth.
The practical takeaway: your neighborhood matters more than the headline. Turnkey homes, strong school boundaries, and low-risk locations can keep pricing power even when the broader market is slower.
While appreciation will be modest compared to 2020–2021, both Ventura County and Los Angeles County show continued growth.
Here’s what the data suggests for median home prices through 2026:
Southern California Home Prices: 2026 Forecast
Median home price trends & projections for Ventura County and Los Angeles County
Why This Matters
Both markets show continued appreciation despite higher rates. Ventura remains more affordable than LA,
but both are seeing modest, sustainable growth—not the double-digit spikes of 2020–2021.
VENTURA COUNTY
2026: $870K–$895K
+1.5% to +4.5%
From 2025’s $857K
LOS ANGELES COUNTY
2026: $1.02M–$1.06M
+2% to +6%
From 2025’s $1.0M
💰 What These Prices Mean for Your 2026 Strategy:
Ventura County advantage: With medians ~$150K–$200K lower than LA, Ventura can offer stronger affordability for many families—especially in city-level price bands that still support conventional financing.
LA’s premium markets: At $1.0M+ median, LA remains price-stratified. Coastal and Westside submarkets often command durable premiums while affordability-sensitive areas react faster to rate changes.
The 2026 reality: Modest appreciation means sellers won’t get rewarded for “testing” a high price—execution, condition, and launch strategy matter.
Investment perspective: Sustainable appreciation plus principal paydown can still build wealth—just at a more durable pace than pandemic-era gains.
Ventura County baseline right now (latest monthly data)
Before forecasting 2026, it helps to anchor where we are today. The following Ventura County baseline metrics reflect the most recent monthly snapshot available at the time of writing.
Metric
Ventura County (latest month)
What it means heading into 2026
Median sale price
About $857K (latest monthly snapshot)
Pricing power is neighborhood-specific; “median” hides big swings by city and condition.
For city-specific insights, explore our guides to
Thousand Oaks,
Camarillo, and
Simi Valley.
Days on market
About ~60 days
Buyers have more breathing room than peak frenzy years; sellers must earn attention with price + presentation.
Sales volume
Roughly flat-to-up year over year (monthly)
Small improvements are possible if rates stabilize and inventory improves, particularly in “A” school boundaries and turnkey condition.
Data note: Use this as directional context. City-level and neighborhood-level conditions can diverge materially by street, school boundary, home condition, lot size, and micro-location.
Los Angeles baseline right now (latest monthly data)
The Los Angeles market in 2026 has a different dynamic: stronger price stratification, more investor activity in certain submarkets, and higher sensitivity to affordability.
Here’s the latest baseline snapshot at the time of publishing:
Metric
Los Angeles (latest month)
What it means heading into 2026
Median sale price
About ~$1.0M (latest monthly snapshot)
Affordability is the main governor; small rate changes can shift demand, especially for payment-sensitive buyers.
Days on market
About ~60 days
Condition and pricing discipline matter—buyers will pass on “almost right.”
Market behavior
Highly neighborhood-dependent
Expect “micro-markets”: one ZIP is hot, the next is flat, and the difference is often school + commute + condition.
Properties in Santa Monica, Manhattan Beach, Venice, and Malibu often maintain pricing power despite higher rates.
These markets have historically shown resilience during rate volatility due to limited inventory and high-income buyer pools.
Expect medians to hold or grow modestly (often 1–3%), with the luxury segment ($3M+) showing more volatility by property type and motivation.
Valley-floor markets (Ventura County)
Cities like
Camarillo,
Oxnard, and
Simi Valley
offer more affordability entry points for first-time buyers and families. These markets may see 2–4% appreciation as buyers priced out of LA expand their search radius.
Watch for increased competition in the $650K–$850K band where monthly payment thresholds cluster.
Hillside & view properties
Homes with wildfire exposure or insurance complexity may face headwinds. Buyers increasingly factor insurance costs into affordability calculations before writing offers.
For strategies on navigating these markets, see our
LA wildfire insurance guide
and
Ventura County wildfire insurance guide.
Commuter markets (LA County)
Areas like Pasadena, Burbank, and Glendale that balance LA employment access with strong amenities may remain firm if inventory stays constrained.
These markets appeal to buyers seeking strong “daily life” value without coastal premiums. Expect 3–5% appreciation where turn-key supply is limited.
If you’re buying in 2026: the smartest strategy
In a world where rates hover around ~6%, buyers win by being more prepared than the competition—not by waiting for a perfect headline.
Start by getting pre-approved with competitive lenders so you understand your real buying power and your comfort-zone payment.
1) Buy the payment, not the rate
Rates may not collapse. Your advantage comes from reducing payment volatility: stronger down payment, lender credits where available, and realistic price targets.
If rates do drop later, refinancing becomes an option—but it shouldn’t be your entire plan.
Calculate Your 2026 Payment
See how different rates and down payments affect your monthly mortgage payment
Your Monthly Payment (P&I)
This calculator shows principal and interest only. Your total monthly payment will also include property taxes, homeowners insurance, and HOA fees if applicable.
💡 2026 Payment Strategy Tip:
When comparing homes, calculate the payment difference between properties—not just the price difference.
A $50K cheaper home with higher taxes and insurance might cost more monthly than a pricier home in a better location.
Location drives long-term costs through property taxes, insurance, and resale value.
2) Target “A locations” and be flexible on the house
In mixed markets, location premiums usually hold. If you have to compromise, compromise on cosmetics—not the street, school boundary, or long-term desirability.
Research Ventura County school districts and
neighborhood quality indicators before making offers.
3) Use a two-track search: turnkey + value-add
Turnkey homes can still attract competition. Value-add properties can be less crowded—if you budget correctly and do your due diligence.
Strong listing presentation can also shape buyer perception; understanding fundamentals like
real estate photography
helps you separate “staged glow” from actual condition.
4) Build a fast but safe offer system
In 2026, the best buyers move quickly and protect themselves. Set offer ranges, define non-negotiables (insurance, HOA, condition),
and review our offer strategy checklist before you’re in a deadline situation.
A tight offer process often beats a slightly higher price because it reduces friction and uncertainty for sellers.
5) Don’t skip insurance diligence
In parts of Southern California, insurance availability and cost can affect affordability and even deal viability.
For insurance planning, use our pre-purchase insurance checklist.
If you haven’t read them yet, here are two related guides:
If you’re selling in 2026: how to win without guessing
If 2026 is “steady” rather than “explosive,” sellers need to lean into fundamentals: price it right, present it right, and market it like it’s competing (because it is).
1) Price based on today’s buyer pool
A buyer at ~6% financing is payment-sensitive. Overpricing can cost you the first 14–21 days, which is typically when your listing gets peak attention.
Use our seller resources including a home value estimator as a starting point, then validate with a full comparative market analysis (CMA) and on-market competition.
2) Condition matters more when buyers have options
Small improvements (paint, lighting, curb appeal, staging) can widen your buyer pool—and in a slower market, that is leverage.
Consider professional home staging to maximize first impressions and photo-to-showing conversion.
3) Use concessions strategically (not emotionally)
The best concessions are the ones that expand affordability: temporary buydowns, closing cost credits, or repairs that remove deal friction.
The goal is to increase the number of qualified buyers who can comfortably say yes—not to “negotiate against yourself.”
4) Treat launch week like a campaign
In 2026, execution matters. That means strong photos, clean disclosures, showing strategy, and pricing discipline—all aligned in the first week.
A well-coordinated launch reduces the chance your listing “goes stale,” which can force price reductions later.
💡 2026 Seller Timing Tip:
The strongest buyer activity typically occurs in spring (March–May) and early fall (September–October).
If your home needs work, start improvements in winter so you can launch when buyer traffic peaks.
A well-timed listing with proper preparation can command 3–7% more than the same home listed hastily in a slower month.
Local seller advantage:
If you want top-dollar, the fastest path is often: (1) accurate pricing, (2) clean presentation, (3) a strong first-week launch.
I can share comps + a launch plan for your specific neighborhood.
The 3 risks that could change the 2026 outlook
Rates move unexpectedly: inflation, bond market shifts, or economic shocks can change the cost of money quickly.
Inventory changes faster than expected: more sellers listing could soften prices; fewer could keep them firm.
Insurance/ownership costs rise: premiums, taxes, and HOA costs can change affordability even if rates don’t.
What changed from 2025 to 2026: market evolution
Understanding what shifted between 2025 and 2026 helps explain current market dynamics.
For historical context, review our market analysis archives.
Mortgage rate stabilization
After peaking above 7.5% in 2023 and hovering in the high-6% to low-7% range through much of 2024–2025,
rates stabilized into the low-to-mid 6% range by late 2025. That stability reduced payment shock and brought more buyers off the sidelines—not a flood, but a steady thaw.
Inventory gradually improving
After years of tight supply, more homeowners listed as they adjusted to the reality that 3% rates may not return soon.
This created a more balanced environment where buyers have choices and sellers must compete on price and condition.
Insurance becoming a deal factor
What used to be a closing-week detail is now a pre-offer consideration in many hillside and high-risk zones.
Buyers increasingly request insurance quotes before writing offers, and sellers proactively share policy details to reduce deal friction.
Payment-driven decision making
Unlike the 2020–2021 frenzy, 2026 buyers lead with monthly comfort. That creates price ceilings in certain submarkets and forces sellers to align with today’s qualified buyer pool.
Most major forecasts expect rates to hover around the low-to-mid 6% range in 2026, with uncertainty by quarter and market conditions.
The most practical approach is to plan for a payment that works at today’s rates and stay flexible if refinance opportunities appear later.
Key insight: Even if rates drop to 5.5% later in 2026, the payment difference on a $680,000 loan is often only around $200/month—meaningful, but not always worth delaying a purchase if you find the right home.
For detailed rate analysis, see our 2026 mortgage pre-approval guide.
Will Ventura County home prices fall in 2026?
Broad forecasts point to modest movement overall. In practice, Ventura County is many micro-markets: some neighborhoods may soften while others hold firm based on schools, commute, condition, and inventory.
If you want a precise read for your area, a comp-based snapshot is more reliable than countywide headlines.
Is 2026 a good time to buy in Southern California?
For prepared buyers, a steadier market can be an opportunity: less frenzy, more negotiation, and more time to evaluate.
Align payment comfort with neighborhood quality, and use tools like
affordability planning
to stay grounded when inventory is tight.
The advantage in 2026: unlike 2021, you’re less likely to face 10–20 competing offers on every listing—giving you time for proper due diligence, repair negotiations, and insurance verification before removing contingencies.
Is 2026 a good time to sell in Ventura County or LA?
Yes—if you price correctly and present the home well. In a market without runaway demand, execution matters more than ever:
photos, condition, pricing discipline, and a strong first-week launch.
What matters most: rates or inventory?
Both, but inventory shapes leverage. When buyers have choices, pricing discipline and condition become decisive.
When supply is tight, even small rate improvements can increase competition quickly.
What should first-time buyers focus on in 2026?
Payment planning, down payment options, and insurance diligence. Start with our comprehensive
Ventura County first-time homebuyer guide,
then narrow to neighborhoods that fit your monthly comfort zone and commute needs.
Critical 2026 tip: factor in the full monthly payment (mortgage + taxes + insurance + HOA) from day one.
Many first-time buyers in 2025 were surprised by insurance costs—don’t let that derail your offer strategy.
Use our payment calculator above to model scenarios before falling in love with a property.
How do I get a neighborhood-specific forecast?
Request a short neighborhood snapshot: current comps, buyer demand, days-on-market trend, and a pricing/offer strategy aligned with your timeline and goals.
This is the most reliable way to translate “countywide” trends into your street-level reality.
Your 2026 Southern California housing market game plan
This 2026 Southern California housing market forecast points to a more balanced, strategic market for both Ventura County and Los Angeles.
With mortgage rates stabilizing in the low-6% range and modest price appreciation expected, success in 2026 comes down to preparation over prediction.
Whether you’re buying or selling, fundamentals matter more than ever: accurate pricing, financial readiness, and understanding your local micro-market.
The neighborhoods that thrive tend to be those with strong daily-life fundamentals—schools, commute convenience, lower insurance friction, and tight turnkey supply.
Forecast references used in this analysis include: C.A.R. 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, Redfin 2026 housing predictions, Zillow 2026 housing outlook,
Realtor.com 2026 forecast reporting, and a Reuters poll on 2026 rates/prices. Local baseline metrics reference the most recent monthly trends available at time of writing.
Mortgage rate historical data sourced from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Ventura County Mortgage Rates October 2026 October 2026 Mortgage Market Update Ventura County Mortgage Rates October 2026: 7.4% and What Buyers Should Do Now If you have been watching Ventura County mortgage rates October 2026 headlines this month, you already know the news is not pleasant. The national 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.40% in the week ending October 8, which is the highest reading since late 2023. However, a higher rate does not automatically mean you should stop shopping for a home. Instead, it means you need a sharper plan. In this guide, I break down why rates jumped, what the Fed may do next, what the new rate does to your monthly payment, and five practical moves for buyers in Camarillo, Thousand Oaks, Oxnard, Simi Valley, and the rest of the county. Discuss Your Buying Options → Calculate Your Payment 30-Year Fixed 7.40% October 8, 2026 15-Year Fixed 6.73% National Average Year-Ago Average 6.30% October 2025 Source: Freddie Mac weekly mortgage survey. National averages are not personalized lending quotes. Ventura County Mortgage Rates October 2026: Where We Stand Let’s start with the numbers. According to Freddie Mac‘s weekly survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.40% as of October 8, up from 7.28% the week before and well above the 6.30% average a year ago. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed averaged 6.73%. As a result, borrowers who qualified comfortably in the summer are now running the numbers all over again. The recent climb has been steady rather than sudden. Rates sat near 6.7% in early September, then moved to 6.95% by September 17. Next, they crossed 7% on September 24 for the first time since January 2025, and they have kept rising since. Therefore, this is not a one-week blip, and buyers should treat it as the new starting point for planning. Important distinction: Freddie Mac’s survey measures a national average for conventional, conforming loans with 20% down and excellent credit. Consequently, your actual quote in Ventura County may be higher or lower depending on your credit score, down payment, loan type, and whether you need a jumbo loan. If you want the previous month’s snapshot for comparison, you can read my September 2026 Ventura County mortgage rate update. Why Mortgage Rates Jumped Above 7% Mortgage rates do not follow the Fed’s policy rate directly. Instead, they track longer-term borrowing costs, especially the 10-year Treasury yield. Therefore, anything that pushes inflation expectations higher tends to push mortgage rates up as well. Several forces have combined this fall. First, energy prices have stayed elevated during the ongoing conflict with Iran, and that has kept inflation worries alive. Second, the Federal Reserve raised its target range by 0.25 percentage points on September 16, to 3.75%–4.00%. That was the first hike since July 2023. Additionally, Fed officials signaled that another increase is likely before year-end. For a deeper look at that decision, see my breakdown of what the September Fed rate hike means for Ventura County and LA buyers. Why This Matters for Homebuyers In short, lenders are pricing in a world where inflation stays stubborn and rates stay higher for longer. Because of that, even good economic news can nudge mortgage rates upward. What the Fed Does Next: Dates to Watch Buyers who are tracking rates should circle three dates. First, September’s Consumer Price Index report arrives on October 14. Second, Freddie Mac releases its next weekly rate survey on October 15. Finally, the Fed announces its next policy decision on October 28. OCT 14 Inflation Report September CPI OCT 15 Freddie Mac Weekly Rate Survey OCT 28 Federal Reserve Policy Decision Markets currently expect the Fed to hold steady in October, with traders pricing only about a 20% to 25% chance of a hike at that meeting. However, many analysts still expect another increase in December. As a result, a hot inflation report could push mortgage rates higher before the October meeting, while a soft report could give them some relief. Nobody can time this perfectly, and that is exactly why I recommend building a plan that works at today’s rate instead of a hoped-for rate. You can follow the official schedule on the Federal Reserve’s FOMC calendar. What 7.4% Does to Your Monthly Payment Numbers make the impact easier to see. The table below shows the principal-and-interest payment on a 30-year fixed loan at three recent rate levels. I used 20% down on three example home prices of $750,000, $1,000,000, and $1,200,000, which produce loan amounts of $600,000, $800,000, and $960,000. These are illustrative examples, not Ventura County medians. Loan Amount At 6.30% A Year Ago At 6.69% Early August At 7.40% October 2026 Monthly Increase vs. A Year Ago $600,000 $3,714 $3,868 $4,154 +$440/month $800,000 $4,952 $5,157 $5,539 +$587/month $960,000 $5,942 $6,188 $6,647 +$705/month On smaller screens, swipe horizontally to view the complete table. Payments are rounded estimates for principal and interest only, assuming a 30-year fixed-rate loan. Payment Difference $587 More Per Month On an $800,000 loan, the estimated monthly principal-and-interest payment rises from $4,952 at 6.30% to $5,539 at 7.40%. Notice that these figures exclude property taxes, homeowners insurance, and any HOA dues. Moreover, insurance costs have risen across California, so your real monthly housing cost will be higher than the table shows. To see how this changes your own budget, try the Ventura County mortgage calculator or read my guide on how much house you can afford in Ventura County. Ventura County Homebuyers Wondering What You Can Actually Afford? Higher mortgage rates don’t have to leave you guessing. Let’s discuss your budget, target neighborhoods, and opportunities to negotiate better purchase terms in Ventura County. Let’s Build Your Buying Strategy → Zac Wasserman | REALTOR® | RE/MAX ONE 5 Smart Moves for Ventura County Buyers Right Now Higher rates change the strategy, but they do not end the opportunity. Here is what I suggest. MOVE 01 Get Fully Pre-Approved and Compare Multiple Lenders Rate quotes can vary meaningfully from one lender to the next. Therefore, request at
Ventura County Home Seller Guide | Fall / Winter 2026 Should You Sell Now or Wait Until Spring? Ventura County Fall/Winter 2026 Guide By Zac Wasserman, REALTOR® (CA DRE# 02210760), RE/MAX ONE | Updated October 9, 2026 If you own a home in Ventura County and you’ve been thinking about listing, you’re probably asking one question: should you sell now or wait until spring? It’s a fair question, because the market changed this fall. Mortgage rates climbed to 7.40% in early October. The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023, and the holidays are only a few weeks away. However, the local numbers tell a more useful story than the headlines do. In this guide, I’ll walk through what September’s MLS data shows and what each choice is likely to cost you. I’ll also explain how to decide based on your own situation. Should You Sell Now or Wait Until Spring? The Short Answer For most Ventura County homeowners, selling this fall makes sense if you need to move within the next six months. It also makes sense if you’re buying another home in the same market or if your home is ready to show today. On the other hand, waiting makes sense if your home needs work and your timeline is flexible. You should also be able to carry the home comfortably through winter. Therefore, the right answer depends less on the calendar and more on your price, your preparation, and your next move. Free Home Valuation → One thing is clear from the data, though: timing matters far less than pricing. In September, homes that were priced correctly sold in a median of 20 days at full price. Meanwhile, homes that needed a price reduction took a median of 70 days. As a result, a well-priced November listing can outperform an overpriced April listing. What the Ventura County Market Looks Like Heading Into Winter I pulled every closed sale in the county for September, and the full breakdown is in my September 2026 Ventura County market update. Here are the numbers that matter most for sellers: Closed sales: 489, compared with 497 in August Median sale price: $875,000 across all property types, and $950,000 for single-family homes Median days on market: 31 Median sale-to-list price ratio: 98.6%, down slightly from 99% in August Sellers who reduced their price before selling: 32% Sellers who paid a credit toward the buyer’s closing costs: 39%, with a median credit of $7,750 In other words, the market is steady but no longer forgiving. Prices are holding, and homes are still selling in about a month. However, roughly one in three sellers had to cut their price. In addition, nearly four in ten paid part of the buyer’s costs. Furthermore, most of those September closings went under contract in August, before rates jumped. Consequently, I expect the October and November data to show somewhat longer market times and more negotiation. How 7.40% Mortgage Rates Change the Math for Sellers According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed rate reached 7.40% on October 8, 2026. That is up from 7.28% a week earlier and 6.30% a year ago. In addition, the September Fed rate hike lifted the federal funds range to 3.75%–4.00%, and several Fed officials have signaled that one more increase is possible before year-end. You can check upcoming meeting dates on the Federal Reserve’s FOMC calendar. So what does that mean for your buyer? For example, consider someone purchasing the county’s median-priced home at $875,000 with 20% down. At 6.30%, the principal and interest payment on a $700,000 loan is about $4,333 a month. At 7.40%, that same payment is about $4,847. Therefore, today’s buyer pays roughly $514 more every month than a buyer did a year ago for the same house. Because of that, buyers are more payment-sensitive than they were last spring. They negotiate harder, they ask for credits, and they walk away from homes that feel overpriced. Still, the buyers who are shopping right now are serious, because nobody tours homes at 7.40% for fun. Many of them have a job relocation, a lease ending, or a home they’ve already sold. It’s also worth being honest about what nobody knows. Rates could ease by next year if inflation cools. Alternatively, they could move higher if the Fed raises again. For that reason, waiting for a better rate environment is a bet, not a plan. The Case for Selling Now First, you’ll typically face less competition. Many homeowners delay listing once the holidays approach. As a result, the buyers who are still looking have fewer homes to choose from. A clean, well-priced home stands out. Second, you stop the clock on carrying costs. Every month you wait, you keep paying the mortgage, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance. For example, those costs might total $5,000 a month on your home. If so, waiting from November to April costs about $25,000 before you ever accept an offer. Your number will differ, so run it with your own bills. Third, if you’re also buying, the same conditions work in your favor on the purchase. In September, 39% of sellers paid a buyer credit and 32% cut their price. As a result, you’ll likely have room to negotiate on your next home. In fact, selling and buying in the same market often cancels out much of the timing risk. Finally, you avoid the uncertainty. Today’s prices are known: the county median is $875,000. In addition, well-priced homes are selling at full price in about three weeks. Next year’s prices and rates, however, are only a forecast. If you’re worried about where things are headed, I covered the longer outlook in my post on a possible housing market crash in 2027. The Case for Waiting Until Spring Waiting is a perfectly reasonable choice for some sellers, and I’d rather tell you that than push you to list. First, the spring market usually brings more buyers. Families often
SEPTEMBER 2026 · MARKET UPDATE San Fernando Valley Housing Market Update: September 2026 Prices, Trends & City-by-City Data The median slipped under $1 million, but single-family prices moved just 1.1%. Here is what actually changed. Get My Free Home Valuation By Zac Wasserman, REALTOR® (CA DRE# 02210760), RE/MAX ONE. Published October 7, 2026. Based on 407 closed residential sales recorded in the MLS for September 1–30, 2026. The San Fernando Valley housing market crossed a line in September that people will notice: the median sold price slipped back under $1 million. However, the headline hides more than it reveals. Single-family prices barely moved, condo and townhome prices actually rose, and the real change is happening at the top of the market and in how long homes sit. Below, I break down what closed, what it sold for, and what it means for your next move. In this update:At a Glance|Median Price|Days on Market|Prices by City|Condos & Townhomes|Mortgage Rates|For Sellers|For Buyers|FAQ San Fernando Valley Housing Market at a Glance: September 2026 The median sold price in the San Fernando Valley was $950,000 in September 2026, based on 407 closed sales. Homes took a median of 29 days to sell and closed at roughly 99% of their final list price. Here are the Valley-wide numbers for the month: Closed sales: 407 (down from 446 in August) Median sold price, all homes: $950,000 (down from $1,007,500) Median price per square foot: $550 Median days on market: 29 (August: 28) Median sale-to-list ratio: 99% Sold at or above asking: 41% (August: 44%) Sold after at least one price cut: 35% Sales with a seller concession: 57% In short, fewer homes closed, the middle price came down, and buyers negotiated on more than half of all deals. Even so, speed held steady, which tells me demand is still there for homes that are priced correctly. For a side-by-side look, you can compare these figures with August's San Fernando Valley numbers. San Fernando Valley Median Home Price: Why It Slipped Below $1 Million A 5.7% one-month drop in the median sounds dramatic. However, it does not mean your home lost 5.7% of its value in thirty days, and here is why. First, look at single-family homes on their own. The median single-family sale was $1,170,000 in September, compared with $1,182,500 in August. That is a 1.1% move, which is ordinary month-to-month noise. Similarly, the median price per square foot for houses eased from $609 to $597. Second, look at what closed. Three of the Valley's most expensive communities posted much lower medians than the month before, because a different mix of homes sold there: Encino: $1,525,000 (August: $2,050,000) Studio City: $1,474,500 (August: $1,900,500) Calabasas: $1,550,000 (August: $1,911,500) As a result, the Valley-wide median was pulled down by fewer high-end closings in those areas, while most mid-priced neighborhoods held flat or rose. In other words, this was a mix shift far more than a price cut across the board. That said, the luxury tier still closed deals. Forty-six homes sold for $2 million or more, and nine closed above $5 million, led by a $12,000,000 sale in Encino. Meanwhile, 54% of all September sales closed under $1 million, which is where most of the buyer activity lives right now. How Fast Are Homes Selling? Days on Market and Price Cuts Speed is where this market splits in two. Overall, the median home sold in 29 days. However, that single number blends two very different experiences. On one hand, 27% of homes went under contract within two weeks. On the other hand, another 27% sat for more than 60 days. Therefore, a seller's outcome depends heavily on which group the home lands in, and pricing is what decides it. The data makes this point clearly. Homes that sold without a price reduction took a median of 19 days. Homes that needed a reduction took a median of 67 days, and the typical cut was about $50,000, or 5.6% of the original asking price. Consequently, overpricing by 5% cost those sellers roughly seven extra weeks and usually the same money in the end. Concessions matter too. In 57% of September sales, the seller contributed toward the buyer's costs, with a median credit of $26,000, or about 2.5% of the sale price. Because of that, the true net for many sellers is lower than the recorded sale price suggests. For example, a home that closed at "99% of list" with a 2.5% credit effectively sold closer to 96.5%. Finally, attached homes moved more slowly than houses. Single-family homes sold in a median of about 27 days, while condos took 38 days and townhomes took 47. San Fernando Valley Home Prices by City The table below covers every Valley community with at least eight closed sales in September. Smaller samples can swing sharply from month to month, so treat cities with fewer than 20 sales as directional. San Fernando Valley home prices by city, September 2026 City Sales Median Sold Price Median $/Sq Ft Median Days on Market Sale-to-List Sold After a Price Cut Calabasas 17 $1,550,000 $590 45 98% 47% Encino 50 $1,525,000 $628 24 98% 32% Studio City 24 $1,474,500 $676 25 97% 17% Sherman Oaks 43 $1,399,000 $683 29 98% 30% Tarzana 12 $1,337,500 $523 29 97% 25% Woodland Hills 59 $1,175,000 $572 27 98% 32% West Hills 29 $1,070,000 $516 23 99% 31% Lake Balboa 8 $902,000 $482 21 100% 25% Northridge 25 $875,000 $495 36 100% 60% Chatsworth 24 $856,000 $452 43 99% 50% North Hollywood 31 $845,000 $564 32 99% 58% Winnetka 18 $827,500 $441 34 99% 33% Reseda 14 $826,500 $505 28 100% 36% Canoga Park 17 $815,000 $504 36 99% 24% Van Nuys 24 $811,000 $490 47 100% 17% Panorama City 10 $730,000 $477 22 102% 30% A few patterns stand out. The entry-level Valley is the competitive Valley. Panorama City sold at a median of 102% of list, and 80% of its sales closed at or above asking. Likewise, about 85%
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Encino real estate in 2026: see median home and condo prices, 494 closed sales, 91436 vs. 91316 trends, neighborhood insights, and tips for buyers and sellers.
